#23 Virginia Tech @ East Carolina:
TV Coverage: ESPN 7:30pm
Announcers: Reese Davis, Coach Holtz, Mark May and Todd Harris? (FREE E.A.!!!)
Vegas Line: ECU+13, O/U=51

New uniforms.

A new mid-field logo of a pirate superimposed inside the boundaries of the State of North Carolina.

Clearly the ECU Pirates are gunning for VT with the 18“ big guns of the Imperial Japanese Navy battleship Yamato fame. ECU has been laying in wait for a program introducing national spotlight game like this and you can bet your bottom dollar that we will take their best high caliber shot flush on our chin on Thursday night.

That said; is that good enough for a 13 point underdog to pull the home upset? ECU is not feeling any pain when it comes to confidence after already upsetting us about 14 months ago.  It’s gonna take a lot to beat ECU on ESPN folks. I personally have this pegged right at a coin-flip could go either way game. If you know me you already have figured out that that means Overtime. But who will win?

Official Prediction Thread:

Top-10:

1. One. As in TT has gained 1 yard or less in 50% of his games this year on the ground. Coming into 2009 TT had only 1 negative rushing night in his career. Think about that one for a while folks.
2. Twenty-one. As in ECU has already recorded 21 defensive takeaways for the year; whereas we/VT are only on pace for 22 for the entire season. Our lowest number of defensive takeaways in over a decade!
3. Three. As in ECU has taken 3 upsetting scalps in their last two seasons and change (wvu, UNC, and VT).
4. 40th. As in Via’s very first “HIKE!” vs. ECU will only be his 40th snap of his D-1 career. B.War has 725 over three different seasons for comparisons sake.
5. Five. As in the Pirates have 5 different guys with at least three Touchdowns on the year. (i.e. a very motley offensive attack)
6. 46. As in opposing Qb’s are only connecting on 46% of their pass attempts vs. VT this year. (BONUS: VT has 260% more INT”s than our opponents have vs. us)
7. 127. As in VT has 127 total first downs on the year. VT opponents however have 125!
8. o-8. As in VT has not won a single coin-toss in eight games this year?!?
9. Nine. As in 9 different Hokies are averaging a first down (10 yards) or better per catch on the year during this 2009 season.
10. Ten. As in during our eight games we/VT have committed only 10 Turnovers which have lead to an amazingly low 12 points for our opponents. How much longer can that streak continue?

ECU offensive X’s and O’s:

• single Back sets
• Trips, Boxmen, Stacks
• Pulling nearly anybody; including Tight-End’s or the Boxman on trap blocks
• Rolling the pocket for Pinkney off of play-action fakes to the single Back
• #17 Harris will line-up everywhere but on the OLine. Including Qb.
• Very very physical and aggressive OLine. #74 and #66 are as mean as they come (that’s no insult either) On 4th and 1 to go from the Memphis 3 yardline; ECU went for it and scored on a Qb-Sneak! </w0w>
• Slot-man in motion into their version of a Wildcat (or Bazooka Formation) or into an almost hybrid power-I formation look at times.

ECU is nothing if not balanced and diverse on offense. Pretty close to a 55-45 Pass-Run split in terms of yards gained with all-star candidate Lindsay back at Running-Back (Rb). In film study the Pirates surely showed me numerous sets, and then on top of that quite a few shifts and morphs into even more sets. Why am I telling you this?

Because unlike most teams there is really nothing to routinely key on here. ECU might just as often pass as they might cross you up with a run. They are good yet not great at both. Which means that our defense must stay at home and be sure of their responsibilities before they commit to defend a running or a passing play. Lindsay is what I called “cat-quick” on ESPN radio this week. I suspect that this is part of why we have switched to Gibby over Jake at our ‘Backer position. Why? Because Gibby is a bit more athletic and no less fast than Jake. This makes Gibby a better match-up for dealing with a scat-Back like Lindsay.

The caveat being that we have been run-over (pun intended) by Dwyer and the bigger Wingbacks (or A-backs) at GT and by Houston of UNC recently. The good news is that ECU does not quite possess a pure downhill bruiser of a Rb. The bad news is that they have an OLine that blocks very aggressively and very physically. In fact they block until the “echo” of the whistle dies out. If I were Frank I’d be working the Refs with this pre-game trying to induce some potential Late Hit calls. In pure passing terms ECU is more of a mid-range to short throwing team. Thus we should be able to play at least 7 or more people close to the line of scrimmage. Hopefully that will aid and abet our recently kinder gentler run-stuffing efforts. The real concern here to me is the ECU OLine which enjoys what I personally rate to be no less than 4 potential post-season all-conference honors candidates; and only two teams return more OLine starts than ECU does (114) in all of D-1 football. That gives ECU the match-up Index edge; and if Pinkley heats up he will only inflate said edge all the more. The latest information I have traded for says that the 2nd best ECU Wide Receiver (Wr, Bryant) is now likely out for this game with a bad shoulder. That is no small blow for ECU; though their OLine still gives them what I will characterize as a diminished edge here  Match-up Index (0-10, 0=worst, 5=dead even, 10 being the best  … 3.75 or somewhat in favor of ECU)

ECU defensive X’s and O’s:

• 4-3 base set
• Not the world’s most athletic Linebackers, nor the fastest. Pretty nice run-stuffers internally.
• Not the best tackling defense I have ever scouted
• 3-4 look on obvious passing downs
• Zone umbrella coverage and it is a soft looking zone
• Screens can work here as such
• Not a whole lotta blitzing; more of a standardized vanilla read-n-react

The ECU front-wall is pretty dang good. They can go a legit 7-8 deep and as such they do have the opportunity to begin to wear our currently only 6 deep OLine down as this one drags on. Recall also that our depth is thinner thanks to the B.War injury. Via himself is a pretty nice pass blocker. Klitschko like wingspan or reach allows him to get his hands on opposing defenders before they can get a hold of him. That might suggest a bit more passing, and the fact that ECU is anteing up a very user-friendly 25o passing per game confirms such to me.

Now that said; Via is not gonna push the bowling ball otherwise know as Nose-Guard (Ng) Linval Joseph much of anywhere. Via does have nice footwork however and a high football I.Q. as most coach’s sons tend to have. He could fold-block well to the second-level if we remain fixated with our tradition binge of Inside-Zone running calls.

However, the ECU Linebacking talent is clearly down this year compared to last when ECU enjoyed a couple of fringe N.F.L. guys in their second-layer. ECU is also a tad under-sized at Linebacker and oddly enough did not appear to flow really well to the ball laterally in film-study.

This could be a good game to use the Hokie pass to eventually set up the Hokie run. Might also be a nice time to give Josh and maybe even each Fullback (Fb) the rock a bit to try to wear on the smaller Pirate Lb’s. Ditto giving “Booooooooone” 4-5 carries from the so-called Wild Turkey formation to attempt to physically punish ECU; that is presuming we can get past their front-line. If not for such a nice DLine -3 of the 4 starters are honors candidates- and if not for B.War’s injury; I would favor us in this match-up Index in semi-substantial terms. The fact that all-star and next level Defensive End (De; Wilson) hurt his ankle vs. Memphis does not do our chances any harm either. I do still favor us, even with Via at C;  just not by a whole helluva a lot. (match-up Index 6.75 or somewhat in favor of VT)

ECU special team’s X’s and O’s:
One quick thing here; ECU has a headhunter on their Kick-Off Return team. Watch for the guy in the middle of the field who is boarder line offsides in the 10 yard neutral zone. Never heard of that version of offsides have yah? Dood is there to punk somebody. The Kicker is kinda sorta protected; yet watch this guy. Catty he is not. Chris has already told you that ECU has a great Punt game in both directions. They have a great KO Return guy; a pretty good though blockable Kicker. This index is just about dead even; though I favor the home team in the slightest possible way just because of familiarly of wind and turf conditions that the Pirates will enjoy in Greenville. (match-up Index … 5.25 or just above Neutral)

Illation, conclusions, prediction:
Rounding off, opponents have held the ball for 75 minutes in our last two games compared to a paltry 45 minutes for VT. Use of a pie-chart should convey my message even more strikingly…

See what I mean?

Our defense lacks the following right now:

• overall speed in the front-7
• generic talent and big-play making ability in the second-layer (Linebackers)
• Size at several spots
• Depth to support and compensate for said lack of size in those critical spots.

This all conspires to tell me that teams that can pick on our somewhat weakened front-7 with either a killer OLine and or a killer Running-Back (Rb), stand a fair to middling chance to beat Virginia Tech this year. Ditto a good passing Qb who can pick on Kam and or whomever is in at Rover or a rookie Linebacker (Lb) when isolated against a quality Wide Receiver, Slot-man, or Tight End (Te) or possibly even a Rb. As you can see below ECU has a lot of the pieces; and is peaking as an offense at just the right time.

With a rare home game National TV date on ESPN, ECU will ... respond like an emotional buzzsaw and be very tough to put down. open up a bit high strung then eventually settle down and play their game. be too tight as they are unused to the glare from the national spotlight and play a poor game. View Results  Loading ...

I’m having a tough time seeing this as anything other than two trains passing in the night. “Yes” we/VT do enjoy a top-44 (starters + back-up’s) overall raw talent edge when compared to ECU. And “yes” again I would have to favor our A-game to bet ECU’s A-game head-to-head; even on the road in a moved for ESPN made for TV game -recall that this was a September game originally- down in Greenville.  However, take a good long cold hard RATT stare at the cell’s I have high-lighted for both us and ECU in the chart below…

Now consider the recent Hokie history … UNC was 5th from last in Total Offense and yet ran downhill and all over us for 181 yards rushing. The week before the GT defense had nearly given up 1,000 total yards in their two prior games before our Coastal hegemony showdown. Hell, Vandy even put up 31 on the Wrambling Wreck last week! So it’s not like we haven not had any chances recently. We just lack that lagniappe or little something extra to get over the hump. We’ve gone from the little engine that could to the little engine that almost did.

All of that is the objective bad news; made only worse by our love-affair with Inside-Zone plays which will ask more than a little of a lanky Offensive-Tackle (Via) playing Center vs. two very quality ECU Defensive Tackles (Dt’s).

That’s the bad news … here is the good news. I sent this to Will the other day though I’m gonna kick it out right now free-view for all of you. I have one very strong source at ECU who told me that Taylor and company should hook-up more long plays than Paris Hilton does on a Saturday night in Las Vegas. My film study is inclined to agree. Unless we see a Kansas and or Boston College repeat of pressure up the middle which will swamp T-mobile’s overall ability to nail home-run throws. That is a valid concern with Via being overpowered at Center (C) folks.

Nonetheless, we should hit a handful of nice throws. Lets call for 14 points there; and we should see R.Will run with redemptive authority and do work for say about 140 yards. That’s another 10 points. However, as you can see above, ECU is a much different animal at home; as is VT away. Further, note that ECU’s offense has undergone a comatose awakening with Lindsay back to take some of the heat off of Pinkney at Qb in the Pirates last three games.

Finally note where the balance of these trends or changes have taken place … i.e. in the trenches or across the front-lines where the ECU infantry is better at real estate management than we are. All the more so at Home and in the last 12 Quarters of play. We do enjoy an overall talent edge; but the emotion of being on ESPN; the home-field and recent play trends all favor ECU. That has pushed me to even which insists that I make an Overtime pick. I’m seeing low to mid-20’s for both teams at the end of regulation; after about a 10 point Pirate rally to tie the contest. I’ll call it 24 all at the end of the 4th Quarter. Some of this rally will be due to ECU having 9 days off and our having to travel for this game.  Then I generally have to favor the home team in overtime; though a blocked FGA  – and ECU has had 3 FGA’s snuffed out already on the season- could come into play here. Hate to do it; though I’m gonna go for a VT 3-pointer then ECU hits some fluky play on 3rd and long to win on a TD as our 2009 bowl egilibiy will have to wait to be confirmed by Maryland next week. East Carolina=30, Virginia Tech=27, in one OT.

“LETS GO!”

“HOKIES!”

b’street

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