Wake Forest Basketball game preview (100% FREE!)
February 15th, 2010 by bourbonstreet#11 R.P.I. Wake Forest @ #50 R.P.I. Virginia Tech:
TV coverage: Tuesday 7pm, ESPN2
Vegas line: VT-5, O/U=136
Well, sure looks like it will take beating Wake and Duke to get this 2009-2010 Virginia Tech Men’s hoops team ranked in either National poll.
20-4 does not suck.
21-4 is even better.
22-4 would be phenomenal.
Yes, I am putting the cart before the horse on that one, as 2-0, 1-1 and even 0-2 are not beyond the realm of possibility here. In fact, one might argue that we have our two toughest remaining games up back-to-back this week. Consecutive tough’s is a no-no, though we will have 5 days worth of fresh legs for our visit to Duke. This brings me full circle all the way back to the beginning. 20 wins began with a lovely sideswipe of uva at home. Tight first half that saw uva stake a halftime lead. Then a chippy, edgy second-half that saw the first tête-à-tête between on-court Commonwealth rivals emerge in a long time as MD and S.Landesberg could not seem to get enough of each other. Watch that if my predicted round#3 unfolds during the A.C.C. tourney. Nice to see rivals acting like rivals once again.
Yet this is a Wake Forest basketball preview, and Wake is anything but a gimmie, even inside of Cassell Coliseum where we are prefect for the first time since 1976. (Praise be to UTPrOsim)
Wake is a good hoops team folks. Indeed, they are capable of conducting siege warfare on the road and possibly conquering our very own beloved Cassell. Wake stands in at 18-5 overall and a nifty 8-3 inside the never friendly confines of A.C.C. play. That’s good enough for a #25th ranking in this week’s ESPN/USA coaches poll, and that only leaves the Decs 1 game south of Duke in the race for the 2010 regular season A.C.C. championship and a #1 A.C.C. tournament seeding. 4 of Wake’s 5 L’s have come out on the road, where Wake has been beaten by 21, 20, 11, and 1. I don’t know about you, though I’ll take a 0.01 win on the affordable Russian Olympic Judge’s scorecard and call the whole shebang off.
Wake at a Glance:
- 7th in 3-point defense. (28.3% allowed)
- 8th in FG% defense. (37.5% allowed)
- 17th in Blocks. (5.8 per)
- 36th in Rebounding Margin. (+5.2)
- 252nd in FT%. (65.9%)
You’ve heard me say it before, and I am saying it again, there are two things that can not go cold in the streaky sport otherwise known as Basketball. Those would be defending and rebounding, both of which tend to be determined by raw effort or want-to as Coach Bud Foster calls it. Sure looks to me like Wake wants to shut opponents down both in shooting and on the glass. This means that points will be at a premium and that this will be a rugged contest no matter how PATT you slice it.
Wake is lead by #1, one 6`9“ 215 lb. Al-Farouq Aminu, who’s name means: “…the chief has arrived…” This is quite literally true as Mr. Aminu’s family tree has numerous ruling Nigerian Kingly branches. Seriously, this kid actually descends from Nigerian Kings! Mr. Aminu plays a kingly game too boot, 16.5 points and 10.9 boards per game says so. Not bad work if you can get it outta a second-year A.C.C. ballers. Next up is #10 Ishmael Smith, a 6`0“ 175 lb. senior baller who may or may not favor reading Melville novels. He does however fill out a stat sheet with 13 points, 5 boards and 6 assists. This conspires to make Ishmael something of a hooping Cody Grimm when taken on a pound-for-pound greatness basis. #11 C.J. Harris is a 6`2“ 175 lb. freshman combo-Guard who chips in 10 points per game himself.
Wake Forest pocket scouting guide:
#1 PF, Aminu: springy baller, #1 in blocks (1.6) and FTA’s (149) on the year. Average hands as he is also #1 in Turnovers and has decent yet not great range, can score and rebound in bunches!
#10 Pt.G, Smith: Nice handle, nice on the ball player both on O and on D (#1 in steals). 29% FT shooter as a soph, now at 47%! </yikes!>
#11 G, Harris: VHT recruit, #1 FT shooter (83%) with good range (36%) from downtown as a t-freshman.
#42 2-G, Williams: one of the best A.C.C. perimeter defender, will check MD all nite long, No range (14% on 3’s), physical penetrating scorer, MD must watch flopping here.
#20 SF, Stewart: No relation to Will, long, athletic, bouncy t-freshman with surprising 3-point range (43%). Explosive finisher with lottsa upside.
#13 C, McFarland: 7` 239 lb. senior Center, known for his deft shooting touch, will block a shot, suspect from the FT-stripe (58%).
#55 C, Woods: 6`11“ 249 lb. sophomore who lives to dunk! Hence 58% from the floor, yet only 45% from the FT Line.
#2 2-G, Clark: scrappy player, solid player, nothing spectacular other than 45% 3-ball range, marksman, sniper specialist.
#44 C, Weaver: 6`11, 244 lb. baller who is not a back to the basket guy, has 3-point range (33%), not as developed as the other Dec big-men.
#25 SG, Tucker: decent reserve 2-Guard, left team due to “Personal Reasons”.
As you can see, Wake is pretty damn big on the inside, fielding no less than 3 legit Pivots (Centers) and a couple of other nice front-courters which include the N.B.A. ready king at Power-Forward in Mr. Aminu. If there ever was a game where we need Jeff Allen on the court and out of foul-trouble it would be this one. Wake is 3rd in offensive rebounding in all of D-1, meaning they are likely to gobble up some offensive put-backs even on the road. This is an uber physical D.Dec frontline folks, they will mix, they will scrap and they are even a bit combative. Just ask Boston College how Woods and companies elbows taste.
Fourm Guide analysis:
- Noticeable or almost a large and in-charge Rebounding edge favor of Wake.
- Bit of a defensive edge as well, not over the top, yet objectively quantifiable.
- Offensively nearly better vs. every single head-to-head common opponent, both from the floor and from downtown.
“Anything you can do I can do better.” -Irving Berlin’s, Annie Get Your Gun-
The fact that Wake was ahead of us in Rebounding is no surprise, and this just in … rain is rumored to be wet. The Defensive part was interesting, as Wake was not only better; they were mo’ better than I expected them to be. VT is a very good defensive team, and Wake is a better one, a B+ vs. an A- if you will. That surprised me a tad, yet it is the deluge of internal baskets or penetrating baskets that Wake enjoys that has provoked me to RATT call Wake the legit favorite in this one. The Dec’s were also about one full notch better head-to-head vs. common opponents compared to VT. It is not that Wake was demonstrably better … it is that Wake was just better enough to warrant a mild to medium edge in defensive, offense, and Rebounding respectively.
Home-Away splits and recent 5 game play:
Wake has run a bit hot and cold of late, heating all the way up to 57% from the floor and cooling all the way down to 32% from the floor in just their last 5 games. Wake is a touch eccentric or erratic on offense at times, a bit hit or miss if you will. Though oddly enough, that does not (much) fluctuate on a Home/Away basis. Pretty normalized basketball team that does not fall off much at all on the Road, which is to Coach Dino Gaudio’s credit. The only thing I did find that was a bit of a bugbear was the fact that Wake’s 3-point defense has worsened by a conspicuous 10% per game in their last 5 games. The other thing that was attractive in VT’s favor was the fact that VT is 81% from the FT-Line in their last 5 games compared to Wake’s lowly 65% shooting on 15` set-shots over the same period of play.
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Conclusions and prediction:
In short, it is less than cogent to favor VT to win this one. Wake is the better team in nearly all of the so-called big things. The Decs are better on Defense, mo’ better on Offense, and noticeably better in rebounding compared head-to-head. VT however does hold several under the O&M radar advantages. VT must nail every single one of these to make up the difference in overall play. FT-shooting, Turnovers, and VT must enjoy a good nite from range or beyond the arc in order to win this one. Not to mention that VT’s front-line and Jeff Allen in particular must stay out of foul trouble and remain on in-play on the court Tuesday night.
“Wake up and smell the coffee.” -The Cranberries-
So I’ma gonna pick Wake to win? To be direct … I really should. They are the better hoops team here folks, plain and simple. In Wake’s last 5 A.C.C. road contests, the Dec’s have thrown-up a sickly 32% night and a 36% night. That’s your in-game metric right there, we catch Wake on a good shooting night and our Hokie Bird is cooked. We catch Wake on a chilly shooting night, mired somewhere in the mid 30’s as a percentage from the floor and we have a middled shot to steal one vs. the superior team. Wake is better than I had thought pre-preview, and they are better in all the wrong places as this game’s match-ups go. In particular I do no like Williams hounding MD all night long. This could be MD’s least attractive one on one match-up in the A.C.C. this year. Yah; sadly, this stinks and I’ma gonna have to pick Wake.
Virginia Tech=59, Wake Forest=69
“LETS GO!”
“HOKIES!”
b’street
(Scroll down for comments on this blog entry)
February 16th, 2010 at 7:05 pm
you may be right Salemite, but the oddsmakers disagree and WF is not a strong road team for the most part……..
February 16th, 2010 at 10:51 pm
i love it when you’re wrong b’street