North Carolina State Virginia Tech basketball preview (100% FREE!)
February 28th, 2010 by bourbonstreet#107 R.P.I. NC.State @ #52 R.P.I. Virginia Tech:
TV coverage: Wednesday 7pm, NONE
Vegas line: VT-8, O/U=134
We had been getting about 18 minutes outta Jeff Allen. We got 44 minutes, 25 points, 15 boards, 11 FTA’s, 1 steal, 1 assist at home and we still got beat?
Even with double-OT inflation being such as it is, that’s pretty remarkable when you think that Jeff’s participation percentage hiked all the way up to 88% vs. Maryland. The maths on that is pretty easy, it basically double, and Jeff had his best game of the year. MD-20/20 had 27, Hud’ (who was really hurting to close the show) had 21, J.T. even had 15. Not often do you see four Hokies in double-digits vs. a team not named V.M.I. We also shot 46%, and had a whopping +7 Rebounding Margin edge (the Terps sure play smaller than they are, don’t they).
And we still got beat, at home, to extend our L streak to 3.
Maryland is good, though that 3 game skid is no good sports fans.
Now we catch a semi mini-me resurgent NC.State team that is feeling no pain, can play care-free basketball and could still backdoor a N.I.T. or C.B.I. bid with two more wins; which would get them to 18 on the year. That and a little A.C.C. calling-card cachet might just do the post-season trick for NC.State. Just like Kevin Nash and Scott Hall once warned … “don’t turn your back on the Wolfpac.”
NC.State at a glance:
- 45th in Blocks. (5 per)
- 86th in Assists. (14.3)
- 103rd in Turnovers. (13)
- 190th in FT%. (68%)
- 214th in Rebounding Margin. (-0.8)
State ain’t great. Yet State did just beat Wake 68-54 and then the Wolfpac blew into So.Beach and beat an 18 win Miami team by 71-66. Before that State had been beaten pretty soundly in 4 outta 5 games. So will the real NC.State “…please stand up? Please stand up?” State is 16-13 on the season, and in a 3-way-tie for 12th best in A.C.C. intra-league play at 4-12 with Miami and defending Men’s Champion UNC. State has beaten Duke, FSU and Auburn as well. Yes VT should win and will be the rightful favorite at home. No I am not mailing this one with VT saddled with 3 consecutive rocky L’s.
Pocket scouting report for NC.State:
#23 PF, Tracy Smith: Best front-court baller in the A.C.C. you’ve never heard of. Leads state in scoring (18) and rebounding (8). 6`8“, 249 lbs. of right-mass. #1 in blocks and steals! 54% shooter, though his range is limited. MEMO to: Jeff Allen, Smitty lives at the FT-stripe (174 FTA’s)!
#31 F, Dennis Horner: senior team leader, utility do everything guy, some range. Second in points (11) and in boards (4). 6`8“ 227 lbs. Very nice defender and #2 in FT% (81%).
#10 Pt.G, Javier Gonzales: Puerto Rico native who is known for making long range 3’s and bad decisions. First in 3-point% (39%). Third in scoring (10) and first in assists (4). Only 5`11 a buck75 (175 lbs.) #1 in Turnovers as well.
#15 G-F, Scott Wood: streaky and explosive scorer. Very deep range, excellent size for a t-freshman (6`7“), though very thin at a buck70 (170 lbs.) Has cooled off of late.
#12 G, Farnold Degand: Iowa State transfer, has added right-mass, senior with good handles, solid, yet not spectacular.
#24 2-G, Julis Mays: more of a shooter than he is true creator, leads A.C.C. in FT% at 90%. Chilly of late, held to 3 or less points since mid-January.
#1 PF, Dick Howell: bulky 6`8“ 269 lb. PF has added over 50 lbs. in one year since H.S.! 3rd in rebounding, very good on defensive glass. Aggressive, tenacious.
#21 SF, C.J. Williams: versatility is his game. Something of an impoverished mans point-Forward. 54% FT shooter!
#22 SF, Josh Davis: hometown Raleigh baller that stayed home, unlike Walls of UK. Gets consistent reserve minutes even for a t-freshman. Supposed to be a pure scorer, very erratic at such during his rookie season.
#14 C, Jordan Vandenberg: Aussie Euro looking C. 7` 238 lbs. nice shooter, not a banger. Only 33% from the floor, still 3rd in Blocks however. Now relegated to the bench.
#5 PF, D.Painter: 6`10“ 239 lb. Norfolk VA frontcourt escapee. Shot-blocker and offensive rebounder, legit A.C.C. big-body.
In overall terms, this is a very very very pedestrian, vanilla, nonplus NC.State hoops team. What you see is what you get and I am seeing nearly nothing except C+ to D+ kinda metrics outta this Wolfpac club. They are not great at anything, anymore than they are not really bad at anything. Middleocrity is my pet word for this Wolfpac hoops team. They are just good enough to get a few points and hang-around and therefore sometimes mess around and steal one. Yet not good enough to be great; in fact they are the anti-thesis of self-help guru Jim Collins epic book (Good to Great).
For instructional purposes, I’ll dabble a bit more in Stats: State is 181st in scoring offense (68.6 per) and a well associated 167th in FG% on offense at 43.6%. Not top-drawer, yet not a swap-meet reject either. Same deal on defense where State is 106th in scoring defense (66 points allowed) and a nearly symmetrical 116th in FG% allowed at 42%. Again, not quite rock-gut, yet not quite top-shelf either.
This season the Wolfpac is ok, they are decent, they may even be a touch above average on defense. They have won 2 in a row, which does afford them a post-season shot. Yet there is nothing all that compelling here. In fact, State might have to play an A caliber game in order to have a chance to beat VT away, and yet State is only 2 games below .5oo on the road at 4-6. Per such, I was having a tough time trying to find anyway that State might just win this one. That is until I looked at the Wolfpac’s recent 2 game winning streak Box Scores.
To put it simply, State is on-fire right now!
- 53% from downtown.
- 56 FTA’s in two games.
- And 46% from the floor.
Maybe State is trying to save Coach Sidney Lowe’s legacy job? Maybe they are catching that inevitable hot-streak during a given hoops season late in the year? Maybe it is line-up mix and matching as State is now going 10 deep? Maybe this is nothing more exotic than a random atom bumping fluke?
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Either way, we look to be catching a Wolfpac team that could be playing their best ball of the year … while we are on a 3-game high-test physical and emotional intensity schnide. State is like that uninvited neighbor that shows up to the block party that you are hosting – in that they will hang around just as long as you let them. This is why the start is so critical here, and just ask 2007 how that can go on VT Senior Day under Seth Greenberg. Recall that Seth played the last-year senior subs way too long and we dug ourselves a huge hole vs. a beatable Klempson at home. Watch for that in this game; in a game where we need to go ahead and bring our O&M foot down and down hard at that, right on these upstart Wolfpac paws A.S.A.P. I am for giving the seniors a token start. A minute, maybe 1-5 minutes depending on how they do. Though they get the hook with a quick starter reinserting TO if State gets off to a good start under me. Watch for that to begin this game folks. Lewis Witcher could have a say in this one and there is no gar-ron-tee that he aced Public Speaking in Shanks Hall or will be eloquent to begin the game.
(4th Revision: So now HS.com confirms my original G-2 O&M Intel. Will Stewart’s hommie Paul Debnam WILL likely get the token start along with “Lewwwwwwww”. That means we are at 60% strength to begin the game. Could we mess around and kindheartedly sake the Wolfpac to any early-lead? It can happen, because it already has happened. Seth played the senior scrubs vs. Klempson too long in 2007 and we got upset at home).
Fourm Guide:
State actually scores more on the road (4) and shoots much better from 3-point land (5%). Go freaking fig’ on that one folks?!? VT of course is much better at home. Rebounding improves by 6 boards, and defense improves in points allowed (5) and FG% (3%). No surprise there, and with these teams streaking in different directions lets study the recent play trends instead…
Home/Away splits and recent 5-game trends:
State actually scores more on the road (4) and shoots much better from 3-point land (5%). Go freaking fig’ on that one folks?!? VT of course is much better at home. Rebounding improves by 6 boards, and defense improves in points allowed (5) and FG% (3%). No surprise there, and with these teams streaking in different directions lets study the recent play trends instead…
- 3-point shooting: State=29%, VT=22%!
- FG%: both=38%.
As you can see, neither team is shooting worth a dang of late. In fact, VT is downright Masonic or bricklaying from beyond the arc. 4, 2, 2, 3, 5. That’s VT’s number of 3-point makes by game for VT’s most recent 5 games. That’s just begging for a sagging Man-to-Man, a 2-3 Zone or a so-called Pack-Line defense. VT is close to hitting nothing from range, so why not make VT live and die by the 3-point sword?
The 5-game State stats paint a more balanced picture to me. They are nobody’s world beaters, yet they are quite suddenly playing much better; and that does give State a sneaking chance at this one.
“The greatest wealth is health.”
-Virgil-
Conclusion(s) and Prediction:
VT is hurting right now … a very impoverished team health wise if you will. Mark Viera detailed it for the Dub.Post on Tuesday. However, just in case you missed it – MD his hurting
head-to-toe. Well, at least shoulder to ankles plural, and now has a deep-thigh bruise in between. If it walks like a duck, if it quacks like a duck, then it’s a duck. That’s pretty much Hud’s foot injury that now has the dreaded “stress” word attached to it. As in the dubious foot stress-fracture or something more than a sprain, at least potentially. Raines has a bad shoulder hurt. Several other late-season dings and dents dot this March 2010 Hokie hoops team. Very difficult to anoint VT as being long on the intangible asset otherwise know as health. That hurts, yet the hurt-report does not end there…
Then there is this whopping news … sources close to the Wolfpac report that Smith has a bad knee and had to be helped from the floor after 32 grinding minutes @ Miami after State’s last game.
Ouch! Neither team is right; though VT does appear to have more offensive talent, to go along with more injuries.
Suddenly this is an awkward game to call. If Smitty’s knee responds well, and VT’s icy shooting continues, our Hokies would be within reach. That said, State’s margin of error is narrow on the A.C.C. road even with a 100% Tracy Smith locked and loaded; much less with him hobbled on a bad knee. I’ll side with the home team, even though the home team is really hurting when it comes to the wealth of health. VT wins an epic low-scoring injury-plagued odyssey of shots that draw more rim than net. Aeneas himself would be proud to see this many people gutting it out.
Virginia Tech=65, NC.State=54
“LETS GO!”
“HOKIES!”
b’street
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