Georgia Tech Virginia Tech basketball preview: (100% FREE!)
March 4th, 2010 by bourbonstreet#52 R.P.I. Virginia Tech @ #36 R.P.I. Georgia Tech:
TV coverage: 4pm Saturday Raycom
Vegas line: VT+5, O/U=138.5
NC.State may not be a world-beater, they may not have a 2010 post-season, and they may even be the 12th best A.C.C. team in Men’s hoops this year. Nevertheless, if that was not a big Hokie win, it was at least a right-sized one folks.
Big difference between o-5 to close the 2010 show and 1-4, which also brings 2-3 into play if we can upset the ATL de factor NBAD league team in their own house. That’s no small thing, yet beating the Wrambling Wreck in their backyard might also be code for getting our tix punched to the Big Dance.
In holding serve against a NC.State team that had been playing some smart basketball of late, Virginia Tech demonstrated what VT is all about. Toughness, backbone, fortitude, will power. Call it what you will, yet do call the plucky A.C.C. school from Blacksburg, VA. the toughest dog in the fight.
VT will need that on the road in the ATL, where GT is a stellar 14-1 at home, and 19-10 overall, yet a less than attractive 7-8 in A.C.C. play. Which is code for GT also needs to win this one after having dropped 5 of their last 8 games overall.
Georgia Tech at a glance:
- 2nd in FG% Defense. (37% allowed)
- 8th in Offensive Rebounding.
- 20th in Blocks. (5.5)
- 39th in Scoring Margin. (+9.9)
- 42nd in Rebounding Margin. (+4.8)
- 317th in Turnovers per game. (16.4)
Georgia Tech was beaten at home by FSU by 6 points in OT (66-59) right before Christmas. Beyond that Seminole hiccup, GT has been prefect at home. That near perfect home docket includes beating Duke by 4 (71-67) and UNC by 17 (68-51). That reads pretty well in a home sweet home vacuum. However, GT has 9 L’s out on the road. That paints a very adolescent picture to me, and one look at the class rank (Fr.-Sr.) of the statistical leaders in most Wrambling Wreck team categories would tend to agry.
Georgia Tech scouting report:
#31 PF, Gani Lawal: 6`9“ 239 lb. Jr. very high-octane game, strong and athletic, great finisher, #1 in scoring (15), rebounding (9), and FTA’s with a whopping 189! #2 in blocks (1.5), shoots 52%, though only 59% from the FT-Line. Limited range.
#14 PF, Derek Favors: 6`10“ 248 lb. all-world Fr. May be one and done and go NBA right away. 12 points, 8 boards, #1 in blocks (2). 59% both from floor and FT-Line, tad foul prone. #1 ranked PF outta H.S. last year.
#1 G, Imam Shumpert: big G at 6`6“ 209 lbs. So. 9 points, 3 boards and a team leading 4 assists. The ginzu of GT, slices, dices and chops. Finds creases and makes plays. Decent range, more playmaker than pure shooter. #1 in Steals.
#35 PF, Zac Peacock: 6`8“ 235 lb. Sr. Better conditioned, big-body who does work in both the high and low-post. 40% on 3’s, powerful player with range.
#11 SF, Brian Oliver: 6`6“ 222 lb. Fr. Swingman, more comfortable on the outside, 40% on 3’s.
#0 Pt.G, Mfon Udofia: 6`2“ 187 lb. Fr. Strong for his size, left-handed true-Point, needs a bit of work on his handle. 36% shooter.
#13 G/F, D’Andre Bell: L.A. based 6`6“ 222 lb. perimeter stopper for GT. 45% on 3’s, will defend physically at times.
#25 SF, Glenn Rice Jr.: 6`5“ 204 lb. Fr. Legacy baller, just like his old man, can flat out shoot the rock (47% on 3’s). Only 51% from the FT-Line however.
#5 Pt.G, Moe Miller: 6`2“ 185 lb. speedster at Point. Will push tempo, shooting way way down this year.
#34 C, Brad Sheehan: 6`12“ 238 lb. true-C. Banger, will give fouls, pitiful 28% on FT’s!
#5 C, Dan Miller: 6`11“ 240 lb Fr. true-Pivot. Defensive minded, Georgia de-commit, will sit out rest of the season for Frontline spacing with departures expected.
#24 SF, Kammeon Hosley: blew out knee in late summer pick-up game. 6`8“ 199 lb. leaper. Supposed to be the truth, will be ready for next year.
Several patterns emerged here in my strategic overview of GT, among them would be…
- Talent: GT has that. Lots of it in fact, several NBA’ers dot the 2009-2010 GT men’s hoops roster. Flavors may be the next Chris Bosh in fact. However…
- (in)Experience: GT is indeed talented, yet they are indeed young. Raw, rookies, rooks. Hence there have been some growing-pains and some inconsistency here. GT can be very good, or GT can be beaten by a middle of the pack A-10 team like Dayton (59-63).
- Pros: Great defensive team. Very good from beyond the arc on offense which will stretch an opposing defense. Very SportsCenter friendly with lottsa highlight reel work. Not as tall on the fundamentals.
- Cons: FT shooting (276th at 65%), Turnovers, and even coaching. I’ve heard more than one or two whispers that Coach Paul Hewitt is a great recruiter, and not so much on gamedays.
As you can see, GT is quite the mixed lot. One might even go so far as to say that GT has underachieved a bit at 19 wins with what surely looks like multi Pros at whatever level on their 2009-2010 roster. Or to turn that around — clearly the Wrambling Wreck has not overachieved as they shoot for their 20th win vs. Virginia Tech, let’s put it that way.
Tech has a chance in this one, Tech may just win; though this will be a close, tight, hard-fought game for Tech — Either Tech. Which Tech? That’s a tougher one indeed. G.Tech has more raw talent 1-12 than V.Tech does. G.Tech has a whole lotta frontline Talent, making Jeff Allen’s minutes played all the more imperative. G.Tech might even have 3 full frontline N.B.A. players, presuming Hosley recovers his knee health rather well. The G.Tech backcourt is not quite so star struck. You can see this in the fact that 4 of G.Tech’s Top-5 scorers are frontline ballers — despite the fact that G.Tech now runs a 3-G line-up. The G.Tech backcourt ain’t week, yet it is turnover prone and it is also quite nubile or young. Just what V.Tech tends to thrive upon, especially with the documented Turnover ills for G.Tech. The G.Tech Guard rotation is still at least damp behind its ears or still cutting its A.C.C. teeth if you will. This you can see by no less than 46 Turnovers in the Wrecks last 120 minutes of play. However, is is worthy of consideration that G.Tech does enjoy a +1 edge in the all important late-season rest department; thanks to a Tuesday tip vs. Klempson. This of course gives G.Tech the fresher legs in this one and do recall Seth Greenberg’s epic one-liner of “…it’s a marathon not a sprint.”
So as you can see, this is a dicey one to call. GT is by no means unbeatable, though by all means they are a very tough out at home. GT is quite talented, yet mercurial. Good enough to upset a Duke, yet also just good enough to get beat by the S.E.C.’s 11th team (Georgia) in a rivalry game no less’ and then get upset by the french. VT has some issues as well, Hud’s trick-foot, my boy MD’s shoulder, thigh, and ankles plural. How healthy can they be for this roadie down to the ATL?
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No matter how you slice it, this sure looks like a match-up of so-called Bubble-Teams. The A.C.C.’s very own de facto play-in game if you will. Somebody named Tech will indeed win. The tough part is that somebody named Tech is gonna get beat. Might even be a candidate for an Overtime pick in OPT terms.
Be back by Saturday with the Fourm Guide, Home/Away splits and 5-game trends and of course my conclusion(s) and pick. Though I can go ahead and tell you right now, I am fenced on this one. Could be a basket either way or at least something under 2 full shots or 5 points no matter what kinda Technical skills your hoops resume lists.
Fourm Guide:
Oddly enough, almost dead even. GT beat B.C. and played Maryland slightly closer of late and beat Duke at home. Then got worked by Duke on the road and beat State by less. So what I did –peculiar to this specific Fourm Guide- was to look at it Home and Away. GT was slightly better vs. common opponents at home. However, GT faded to a much greater extent out on the road than VT did vs. mutual common opponents. This redresse and confirms two previous patterns to me. GT is very talented, and very young. That much young talent is vastly more comfortable at home, and not yet adult enough mentally throttle up as the visitor. You must respect on GT slapping a very strong Wake team silly and home, and being one of the very few to topple Duke in the ATL.
The Fourm Guide did however teach me one other thing of critical import. GT has a touch of a finesse team look and feel to it. Physical B.C. gave GT a fit, ditto FSU who split with GT, though had to be putdown in Overtime inorder for GT to win.
Is VT a true hardcore bump and grind big east clone of a hoops team? Not really. Although VT is not a softie by any means either – making this a good game to test GT’s adolescent manhood inside with some uber physical O&M play. Getting physical is vital to winning this game, as GT is playing at home and GT is day and nite different; as you are about to see, home vs. away.
Home-Away splits – recent 5 game trends:
Simply put, GT does everything better at home! A perfect 1:1 correlation in every major category (FG% 3-point%, FT%, Rebounding, both on O and D mind you); which is seldom seen, even though that might strike you as a bit counterintuitive prima facie. GT is much better on defense at home and we just found our 14-1 in the ATL vs. 9 L’s out on the road explanation. FG% allowed defense improved by 2.5%, yet GT really closes out on 3-pointers, almost 5% better at home. Opposing teams only net 59% of their FTA’s in the ATL this season; which clearly suggests a LOS, lighting, or depth-perception difference in the Alexander Memorial Coliseum.
As you prolly have memorized by now, VT had been pretty steady on the road compared to Cassell. That has changed recently with suspect showings statistically at Duke and B.C. Our beloved Hokies are slightly off on offense on the road (2% from the floor and 2% from downtown). Yet it is the Hokie defense that wonders a bit mentally out on the road. We’ve even seen this occur specific to a given half of play as the visitor this season. VT’s FG% defense softens by 3% and 3-point defense by almost 5%.
That is not good when you consider how much more dynamic GT is on defense in the ATL. These Yellow-Jackets will play in-your-shirt and sting you a bit as a hooping stop-unit at home. VT really does need to be focused from the get-go and 100% locked and loaded to play 40 high mental-intensity minutes out on the road.
Conclusion(s) and Prediction:
“I can shoot straight, if I don’t have to shoot too far.”
-Scarlett O’Hara, in Atlanta, in Gone with the Wind-
That’s just it … at home I’d pick VT. Even on a potential A.C.C. neutral-court tournament match-up I’d pick VT if it was the opening game – thereby giving MD-20/20 and Hud’ some much needed recovery time. Our Turnover edge should be enough at those hosting addresses.
@ GT and things are very dicey. Atlanta is realatively far away.
VT must shoot straight and not too far. That means testing GT’s physicality on the inside, down in the Key. Will Allen be available for 30+ minutes of play? Such would enable VT to cowboy up and give a damn down in the Lane. The answer to that question might provide an unwelcome N.I.T. rejoinder for one of these two teams.
This recent GT 2 up and 4 down in their last 6 has done VT no favors either. The thing that GT is backed-up against is the proverbial wall. They get beat by VT and they may be N.I.T. bound; however if we get beat by GT we too could be accepting a National Invite. Make or break. Fish or cut bait. Fight or flight. For both basketball teams sports fans.
In the end I was forced to side with GT’s fresher legs vs. a banged up VT hoops team down in the ATL where GT is significantly better in their own house.
Georgia Tech=73, Virginia Tech=69
“LETS GO!”
“HOKIES!”
b’street
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