Well; after a helter skelter regular season in which if not for bad luck we’d have no luck at all our Hokies open the ACC Tournament down in the ATL vs. the Miami Hurricanes. But how did we manage to finish with 13 L’s and only 4 games above .5oo when we might just have 3 Pro ballers in some Pro League or another?

Seth himself has said; or rather I’d go so far as to call it an admission that this 2008-2009 Hokie hoops team is not all that tough mentally or physically. When you see a team that sports 8 L’s by 7 points or less you are seeing exactly what Seth is talking about.

So let’s take a closer look at Miami and see if we can find some match-ups that might lend itself to a VT ACC breakout tourney run; as I actually feel like we need 3 ACC wins (not just 2) too punch our Big Dance ticket with such clumsy out of conference results.

(17-13, 7-9) #62 R.P.I. Virginia Tech vs. (18-11, 7-9) #54 R.P.I. Miami of Florida:
TV coverage: 12 noon, ESPN36o and WBDJ7 Roanoke
Vegas Line: VT+3.5

Miami at a Glance:

1. 11th. As in the Canes are the 11th best Offensive Rebounding team in all of D-1.
2. 39.2.%. Which is good enough for 17th best in FG% allowed. The Canes can D you up.
3. 38%. As in the Canes knock down almost 4 out of every 10 threes they hoist up. 43rd best at such in fact.
4. 242nd. The Hurricanes are only 242nd best in steals. Their only below average ranking out of all 20 major team rankings I track. But this is a function of defensive philosophy more than anything else.
5. 52nd. As in Miami of Florida is 52nd best in having the least personal-fouls whistled against them. i.e. do not expect as many Hokie FTA’s and this could hurt Malcolm’s game.
6. Back-up Guard Edward Rios is suspended for the year and Miami has recently shortened their rotation. Eddie was suspended for a lack of communication with his coach’s; his second suspension of the year. So look for some fatigue late in our game and especially in the 2nd Round if Miami should advance.

Miami is lead by the mad-bomber one Jack McClinton. Basically speaking; Jack’s range is the Gym. If #33 is in it he is open. Jack hails from B’more Maryland, same as our very own street-balling Malcolm Delaney (so watch that street-cred match-up). Jack is 6`1“ a buck85 (185 lbs); and leads Miami in: scoring (20 per game), assists, minutes played, FT% (88%) and 3-ball% at a sizzling 46% clip on the year! Jack can put the biscuit in the basket as Jack is the rare pure scorer who does enjoy epic range on his J. In fact Jack has busted 20 points or more 33 times in his gunning Hurricane career. Though he has not been north of 33% from the floor in the last three weeks. So watch Jack’s shooting early on, we need him to remain chilly of late; as you will see in a few paragraphs that tends to desynchronize the Canes offense.

Jack does score nearly 200% more points than any other Cane does. But helping Jack out would be 6`9“ 24o lb power-forward Dwayne Collins (below), who is second in scoring (1o per game) and first in board-work with 7 for the Canes. Dwayne is a hometown Cane on top of all of that. Chipping in would be guard 6`4“ 209 lb. James Drew with 8 and 6`7“ 219 home-grown small-forward Bryan Asbury -who is Miami’s leading sub- who also nets 8 per game to go along with 5 boards. 6`2“ 183 lb. point-guard Lance Hurdle antes up 7 points.

After that no Cane produces more than 5 points; though 6`8“ 256 lb. Forward-Center combo Jimmy Graham does pull down 6 boards and change on average.

Miami is only 4-7 in their last 11 games. During those 7 L’s Miami has either:

• shot the ball poorly from the floor
• turned the ball over an inordinate amount of the time
• given McClinton precious little offensive back-up

The last one in particular is highly intriguing as Miami has only won 3 times out of the 8 times that McClinton has put up 30 or more and there is a certain amount of linkage between the second bullet and the closing bullet above. This all leads me to posit an old-school Coach Chuck Daily type defense. Let McClinton get his, shut everybody else down, take thy chances.

That typed … we/VT are only 3-8 in our last eleven ourselves. So you can make a case that neither team is playing all that well at the moment. We however are dinged up a bit. Malcom has at least 2 injuries (possibly closer to 3), ADV is less than 100%, ditto J.T. and “shortie”. But Malcolm and ADV are wearing down is what I’m seeing. Logging too many minutes and robbing jump-shooters of their legs is not a good idea.

In our last 3 games we are:

• 36% with 47 turnovers on offense.
• MD 10-40 the floor and 3-20 from downtown.

The last one is the one that baffles me? If you are hurting in as many places as MD is; why try half of your shots from a range that mandates the most lift? Seth says our defense is better. I’m seeing at best an average Hokie hoops team defensively as we do not have a true one on one lock-down defender and we do not have the height/reach nor the quicks to be an epic Zone team.

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Miami, just like us, has been an N.IT. quality team of late hovering at or below .5oo in the ACC. They also have had a tough time building their own private hoops only facility (just like us). But they do have a lot of experience back from last years NC2A team; as their Top-8 ballers are all upperclassmen. Experience edge aside, Collins in very particular needs to redeem his 10 point total in 2 ACC and 2 NCAA games combined last post-season. The Canes themselves were a Sweet-16 pre-season pick by Athlon Magazine and in generic terms have not lived up to their routine 3rd or 4th place ACC prognostications back in September.

Here is what I’m seeing of late now that I’ve hit all spy’s concerned up …

• The so-called Fourm-Guide (how teams have recently fared vs. common opponents) mildly favors Miami but it does favor Miami 5-1 for our last 6 common opponents.
• Miami is the less insalubrious team.
• VT does have an 8% edge from the FT stripe in the last 5 games.
• Both teams are right at 68 points of offense and 40% in the last 5 games.

In other words this looks like a pretty even game played in the high 60’s to possibly the lower 70’s. Close to a 50% pick ‘em game when viewed strategically overall. But what swayed me was that Miami has won 3 of their last 4. They have played with at least something of a recent tactical NC2A sense of desperation. Virginia Tech=68 Miami of Florida=70
“LETS GO!”

“HOKIES!”

b’street.

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