Has Virginia Tech football peaked? Or is the best yet to come?
May 9th, 2009 by bourbonstreetI’ll present three arguments here.
I’ll back all three up.
Take you time, slow down in your consideration of all three. Be realistic all the time (RATT); and see where that takes you.
Then you will vote to decide which one holds the most O&M stroke. All three have simultaneously compelling and competing merits, and the first two of the three are a bit more objective. So bear that in mind as the first two represent a complete set of results that have been published in the O&M history books. Whereas the one behind the proverbial door number three is a bit more subjective or speculative if you will. It tis the real live difference between retrospect and prospect in any debate.
That caveat typed … has VT football peaked? Or is the best yet to come???
Door#1 … Virginia Tech football reached it’s apex in 1999-2001:
Hmmmmm, a perfect regular season in 1999, a 100% on major bowl game appearances during this span, 50% on conference
championships, and average national ranking of 4th … and what was that little thing we played in and have not been back to ever since???
The D-1 National Championship game? That’s the ticket, and it is a ticket we punched with a 2 point lead with 2:13 remaining in the 3rd quarter; which we maintained for the opening part of the 4th quarter.
In 2001, one could very well argue we we only 1 ankle sprain away from playing for the MNC, again. An emerging superstar Rb named Lee Suggs coupled with MV1, a rock solid defense, and the best Punt Return game VT has ever known.
So just how often will an electric De the likes of whom Bud Foster has not seen since, and a full powerhouse of voltage that truly was catching O&M lightening in a bottle in one MV1 ever make their way to Blacksburg VA again? I find it very dubious that either of the other two options below did or will enjoy the services of such an insane individual game-changer that MV1 truly was. That’s the x-factor to this argument, how often do you field a C.Moore or an MV1, much less the most dominate defensive and offensive football players that year on the very same team? Not very is my answer.
Door#2 … Virginia Tech football’s peak was actually 2004-2008:
Five straight years with 10 wins as a basement does not suck. Nor does 52 wins in those
five years which works out to 10.4 wins on average per season. No other five year run in the 116 year history of the pigskin Chicago Maroon and Burnt Orange is even close in fact.
3 conference Championships in 5 years or winning your very own conference 60% of the time is very convincing. Even schools like Michigan, ‘Bama, Texas, So.Cal and the like can not make a 60% conference statement. That is by literal definition … unheard of. That all adds up to an 11th ranked B.C.S. finish on average.
This era also showcases a bit of a mild positive slope; or perhaps even some further upward mobility. More on that below; though one could make the case that this era actually ended better than it began, and it began pretty damn good if you ask the Black Diamond Trophy for it’s $0.03. The x-factor here is that Miami and FSU have both been a bit off, possibly even down for several of the seasons included during this time-frame and you might even mention Klempson in passing as well. I for one would not bet the house on that trend continuing in the sunshine college football stimulus state otherwise know as Florida.
Door#3 … The best is yet to come: 21 members of the 2008 recruiting class are already in our 3-deep. Then there is this metric…we have 64 guys on our roster (as of this Spring) with at least 3 years worth of eligibility remaining. Then you have to account for VT signing some studs who will start in 2011 but are still in high school this spring.
- As of this writing, the 2010 class has 50% of the in-state Top-4, and at least 1 out of state stud.
- The 2009 class has four Top-10 in-state guys. On top of that, this class enjoys the services of 28% of the top-7 VT recruits from 2001 to 2009. (Logan=4th best, and Mr. Wilson who rates 7th best from 2001-2009 when all VT signees for those classes are ranked). That is a helluva a lot of star power folks. Here are the rankings themselves.
- The 2008 class had four Top-10 in-state guys as well; plus a couple of out-of-state studs.
- The 2007 class had five Top-10 in-state guys, and a couple of out-of-state studs.
Lets only say that that stellar recruiting trend continues; -though perhaps it will actually only improve- as uva is not making as much in-state keeper noise as they once did. Using Line of Best Fit and Four Squares regression analysis, would suggest that by 2011 we would have no less than 8 additional Top-10 in-state guys accompanied by 3-4 additional out-of-state studs on campus; compared to what we have overall in Blacksburg today. That adds up to about 12 potential starters for 2011-2012, give or take. But lets be conservative and divide by 2, or halve that number and say that there are no less than 5-6 2011-2012 prime-time starters or major contributors that will not even be on campus in Blacksburg Va this spring of 2009. Shew! That’s a lootta unhatched chickens, or in our case Fighting-Gobblers to count; but you get the point that this talent laden trend is showing no signs of reversing course. Point in fact, if anything, it is only showing signs of bettering itself.
Where does that tell you the Chicago-Maroon future is headed? The x-factor here would be coaching turnover -what if Frank and or Bud were to suddenly leave? Or simple injury prone bad-luck that could lower our ceiling if the injury bug bites several key positions (Qb, De, OLine).
Alright … take a depth breath, turn off your monitor, close your eyes, lean back, and armchair Qb each argument. You will very likely come up with some shrewd supporting evidence for each one that I missed. Perhaps even some Hokie Supreme Court dissenting opinions. Please feel free to add any strong takes in the reply space below.
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Now…………..go ahead and vote, then tell me why you chose the alternative that you did? Which one really is the most correct, when you take out your O&M contacts and call it right down the middle?
“LETS GO!”
“HOKIES!”
b’street.
(Scroll down for comments on this blog entry)
May 9th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
I voted for #3. Using your cons, I add the fact that o-line will be progressively stronger over time. Of all of the top recruits that we have been stockpiling in the last six years or so, that has not benefited the o-line until the last couple of years.
My theory is that FB has built a very strong team while sacrificing the o-line. With all of those other pieces of the puzzle in place, the o-line will be the cherry on top!
May 9th, 2009 at 6:49 pm
It is worthy of discussion … if an improved VT OLine is the final step and therefore asserts that what’s behind the above Door#3 is the truth.
Thought it is also worthy of kicking around whether or not VT is on the Texas, So.Cal, FLA, OK, Ohio.State level? And therefore, if even an advancing version of VT must still make sure that it’s B.C.S. timing is everything indeed.
b-street
May 9th, 2009 at 8:21 pm
I base this response on what Frank said after losing to Nebraska in the Orange Bowl and FSU in the Sugar. He said we lacked depth, and we still see this. However, we are steadily improving. Thus, this will help us to continue to be a top 10 team. This said, we may have lighting in a bottle with TT and JW and KC comparable to MV! and CM. To get to the level of Florida, USC, and Texas maybe impossible, but I believe if we stay around the top 10, then we may just get lucky enough to sneak up on the MNC. I think the harder you recruit, work, coach, and practice, the luckier you get!
May 9th, 2009 at 10:46 pm
Can we vote again on September 6?
May 9th, 2009 at 10:57 pm
Wow, how do I answer this without writing a novella?
Maybe this way:
1.) I think that 1999 was lightning in a bottle. The Hokies lucked out in that year, and what they did they did with smoke and mirrors and two great players. What VT has now is much more real and much more consistent. I no longer consider 1999 to be “real” Virginia Tech football — heck, I didn’t back then. It was one great year and should be appreciated but otherwise forgotten.
2.) Two years after my “malaise” article, I find myself oddly optimistic about this season and Virginia Tech football in general. I have come to believe that the consistency in the coaching staff is an incredible, incredible asset for VT, and a growing reason why Hokie football is as consistent and as good as it is.
I will answer it this way, bstreet: If Frank Beamer has ten more years left in him, then VT football’s best days are still ahead. I have often thought that Frank’s philosophies have been holding the VT program back, but in the last year or two, I have really started to appreciate the notion that Frank knows what he is doing, and the rest of us need to sit back and let him do his work.
I see talent massing on the offensive side of the ball, and I see Bud Foster still coaching the defense, and I think that if VT can keep this status quo for 5-10 more years, they will continue to achieve at higher and higher levels (and that’s saying something).
VT will not, however, ever be a football factory like Texas, USC, Florida, etc. The underpinnings (read: $$$$) are just not there, though Virginia Tech IS built on a solid football foundation.
Bottom line? This is the golden era of Virginia Tech football. Hokie fans should make sure they enjoy it.
May 10th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
Fine effort skipper.
Very candid second paragraph in point 2).
I’m less certain that Frank -Jerry Claibrone may be gone, but he’s still here- Beamer will ever run (no pun intended) another MNC offense. But he may -as EmbreyVT points out- catch enough lightening in the bottle to get back.
That is precisely what I’m predicting with my VT #2 vote and my illation that VT gets into the MNC game this very year. This is not code for an epic VT offense. This is code for improvement as players, improved depth, and just enough HR hitting power to cover our otherwise Gator to ACC championship tendencies on offense.
Think of it as there is now one Ohio State in the ACC. That would be us.
b’street
May 10th, 2009 at 8:00 pm
I think the best is yet to come…but, it might not be under Frank Beamer.
May 11th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
Wow!
Over 9oo votes in 48 hours.
That is very generous; God Bless on that.
: )
b’street
May 11th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
949hokie:
Interesting NOT under Frank possibility. We are in our best position of all-time to bring in a tip-flight coach; right now, if we had to. So that does not hurt. Though it is debatable if anyone can do what Frank has done in Blacksburg to me. And it is also worthy of kicking around just how Blacksburg would respond under a true Offensive gu-ru?
A lot of that depends on what Bud does. Does Bud leave if he is NOT named the new Head Coach? Does Bud land a major gig and leave before Frank gets out? Who would Bud let run his offense if he gets the HC job at VT? Would he axe Stiney? Or would we just clean house and go with a whole new regime?
b’street
May 11th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
Agree with your above comment bstreet. Alot depends on Bud.
The way I see these different eras is this… 99-01 were the years of offensive firepower (with a great defense but who’s scheme was still left open to the pass), 04-08 years of defensive firepower (due to changes made in the D in 04). The yet to come is the combination of both hit full stride with good oline, playmakers on O, and the new school Bud d going at it.
The X factor though to me is whether or not Stiney can call the right plays for this team, as I have disagreed immensely with him in the past.
May 12th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
I’m considering a Bud and who’s got next article. Got it started in fact; just looking over some other names.
I best take is it will not (this time) be as much about the per se right plays. As our ability to hit HR’s out of our traditional play-set. R.Will, T’mobile and D.Ro can score from anywhere. Possibly another Wr or two, possibly even Wilson; and I still have people that swear that Wilson has more running ability than anyone on our campus today.
That’s a lumber company worth of HR mashing power right there.
b’street
May 12th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
I voted for #3 despite the fact that humans tend to discount future good moreso than they do current good.
I feel like ‘99 was a fluke (but then all MNC seasons are subject to significant chance). Comparing option 1 to option 2 is like comparing the MLB home run season record versus the career homerun record. There’s so much more chance around any one season compared to a consistency of performance over time. So Option #2 is better than #1. But what makes Option #3 my choice? It’s basically a combined continuity and infrastructure issue. VT now has in place a fan base, the facilities, a proven successful recruiting and coaching philosophy, a conference, and a winning tradition. I believe the ACC in my lifetime is not going to be the football powerhouse that the SEC is just due to geography. I do agree that FSU or Miami may come back due to the rich recruiting region, but I think VT is in as good a shape or better than any other ACC school outside Florida and even in Florida there’s a lot more competition with the rise of FAU and South Florida. So VT will be in the top quarter of ACC football programs with regard to the basic “nutritional needs” of an NCAA college football program.
I predict that chance will deliver a National Championship to VT if those environmental variables (fans, recruiting richness of VA, conference, facilities and tradition) remain constant over the next 10-20 years.
I feel that Frank Beamer is just hitting his prime as a head coach and that Bud Foster will stay. Given that continuity, I expect that VT will only increase it’s longer term success at conference championships and high win seasons (although maybe not averaging 10 win seasons but considering that a viable possibility for 85% of the seasons). I really feel that the program is hitting it’s stride and the foundations are in place to let even another head coach who recognizes what Beamer’s formula success entails to continue the recent trend.
So my vote in order is Option #3, then #2, then #1.
GoVT86
May 12th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
I voted #3, but on the condition that some changes need to be made. Talent-wise, we are pretty much there. We need better coaching on the offensive line. Maybe its happening, but every time it seems like our line has gelled at the end of the season, the next season it seems to fall apart again.
We need a better offensive coordinator. I disagree with a lot of people who thinks that Stiney calls a boring game. My criticism of his play-calling is that I don’t believe he has a strategy. He has a huge playbook and seems to just randomly select plays out of it.
Finally, I think Beamer needs to adapt his ideas of what he wants in a QB. I cringe every time I hear we’re looking at another dual-threat QB. That to me says he’s an athlete with a good arm, but true quarterbacking skills may be lacking. I’m not against an athletic QB at all. I just believe we should be trying to recruit the best QB period, not just the best “dual-threat” QB.
May 12th, 2009 at 10:10 pm
I want to add one more thing. We are loaded like crazy at RB. This is why its very important that we have a QB that can keep a defense honest with his arm. TT won’t help us this year with his legs. He will help us with his arm hopefully. If he is unable to hit open receivers, our running attack will suffer because the defense will put 11 players in the box.
May 13th, 2009 at 11:39 am
True.
VT is not code for fast OLine starts to begin a given year.
Might be good fodder for a post.
Smartest Coach I know; fully agrys with your 2nd paragraph. “Pulling plays out of the air.” is how he describes Stiney/VT’s offense to me.
b’street
May 14th, 2009 at 7:52 am
Will has it right, being able to keep a coaching staff together for extended periods of time has spoken well for F Beamer’s management ability. IMO that is his greatest asset. The kicker is he has been able to have continuity in coaching ability at least on the defensive side when replacing. There are a lot of hidden advantages in longevity. Knowing each other, understanding and accepting the boss’s philosophy. Trusting each other: boss to coaching staff and opposit and players to coaches and most of all recruiting. Trust is a tremendous advantage in any situation and it generally comes by building relationships which takes time.
jocknerd’ s comment that Stinney does not seem to have a strategy has some validity. But I wonder if he can adjust his game plan in the middle of battle and at times he gets cute with his play calling. That said, do we know what kind of restraints FB has place on him simply due to philososphy?
May 14th, 2009 at 10:29 am
As restraints go, Frank is the Field-Position and Down and Distance wizard of O&M child car-seats that are buckled in good and tight; with at least one or two added bungie-cords just in case.
b’street
May 15th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
1,300+ is indeed record shattering!
Thank you very very much.
b’street